Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 17.771529 21.517624 25.678326 30.616842 36.292166 42.583285 50.056598
2025-03-16 11.281492 15.808297 21.415774 28.761822 38.011218 49.145358 63.423561
2025-03-23 8.736263 13.702041 20.378519 29.768575 42.362442 58.380109 79.963062
2025-03-30 6.617571 11.528784 18.643681 29.295812 44.374128 64.449663 92.611158
2025-04-06 5.627409 10.706618 18.530190 30.842236 49.016986 74.073198 110.295473
2025-04-13 4.071791 8.611150 16.125784 28.645331 48.012609 75.751038 117.172482
2025-04-20 3.399214 7.840097 15.629751 29.198780 50.954800 83.019822 132.065050
2025-04-27 2.904342 7.271519 15.354800 30.016406 54.286454 90.967978 148.255528
2025-05-04 2.534307 6.856602 15.265992 31.090357 58.043481 99.694976 165.939588
2025-05-11 2.168236 6.357710 14.933898 31.676171 61.004864 107.316656 182.276406
2025-05-18 1.783510 5.713618 14.212709 31.461712 62.574111 112.805381 195.574777
2025-05-25 1.402610 4.964492 13.147666 30.466036 62.686794 115.931228 205.306759
2025-06-01 1.121589 4.418395 12.488531 30.316457 64.536309 122.406061 221.333714
2025-06-08 0.793689 3.607070 11.084245 28.521755 63.310254 123.824390 229.576451
2025-06-15 0.678274 3.401456 11.048648 29.524957 67.310716 134.223113 252.783619
2025-06-22 0.521646 2.976900 10.374379 29.055528 68.443063 139.724601 268.151104
2025-06-29 0.465862 2.902963 10.596522 30.591807 73.581682 152.462559 296.081200
2025-07-06 0.310766 2.320101 9.280494 28.409367 71.101638 151.505159 300.808403
2025-07-13 0.256914 2.156478 9.130035 28.959152 74.216470 160.777515 323.386192
2025-07-20 0.217271 2.038053 9.090235 29.771390 77.928952 171.308571 348.527188
2025-07-27 0.187901 1.956329 9.149592 30.838309 82.250816 183.156486 376.384921
2025-08-03 0.155608 1.829829 9.029301 31.420306 85.553708 193.220174 401.424605
2025-08-10 0.119449 1.638706 8.632029 31.207243 87.076825 199.946647 420.728932